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Baccarat Odds

Calculating the odds in different Baccarat bets

This article discusses the odds and house edges in the game of baccarat and how these house edges vary with changes in the number of decks used in the game. In the primary discussion it is assumed that baccarat is being played with 8 decks and that all three wagers, Banker, Player and Tie, are on offer.

For $1 wagered on the Banker winning three outcomes are possible. The first outcome is that the Banker wins. In that event the payout is $0.95, which is calculated as even money less 5% commission for the house. The probability for the Banker winning is 45.86%. This leads to an expected return of 43.57%. The second outcome is that the Player wins. In that event the wager of $1 is lost. The probability for the Player winning is 44.62%. This leads to an expected loss of 44.62%. The third outcome is a tie. In that event the wager pushes and there is no loss or gain. The probability of this happening is 9.52%. However there is no expected return. The house edge on the Banker winning is 1.0579%

For $1 wagered on the Player winning three outcomes are possible. The first outcome is that the Player wins. In that event the payout is $1. The probability for the Player winning is 44.62%. This leads to an expected return of 44.62%. The second outcome is that the Banker wins. In that event the wager of $1 is lost. The probability for the Banker winning is 45.86%. This leads to an expected loss of 45.68%. The third outcome is a tie. In that event the wager pushes and there is no loss or gain. The probability of this happening is 9.52%. However there is no expected return. The house edge on the Player winning is 1.2351%

For $1 wagered on the Tie bet three outcomes are possible. The first outcome is that the Player wins. In that event the wager of $1 is lost. The probability for the Player winning is 44.62%. This leads to an expected loss of 44.62%. The second outcome is that the Banker wins. In that event the wager of $1 is lost. The probability for the Banker winning is 45.86%. This leads to an expected loss of 45.68%. The third outcome is a tie. In that event the payout is $8. The probability of this happening is 9.52%. This leads to an expected return of 76.12%. The house edge on the Tie bet is 14.3596%. Hence under the rules considered wagering on the Banker has the lowest house edge and is the most favorable bet.

If baccarat is played with 6 decks the house edge for the Banker bet is 1.0558%, the house edge on the Player bet is 1.2374% and the house edge on the Tie bet 14.4382%. As compared to the eight deck game the house edge for the Banker bet has gone down very marginally and house edges for the Player and Tie bets have gone up very marginally. If baccarat is played with 1 deck the house edge for the Banker bet is 1.0117%, the house edge on the Player bet is 1.2864% and the house edge on the Tie bet 14.7461%. As compared to the eight deck game the house edge for the Banker bet has gone down and house edges for the Player and Tie bets have gone up. This leads to the conclusion that playing with fewer decks favors the player because he can get a lower house edge by wagering on the Banker. Related articles - How to Play Baccarat - Baccarat History - Baccarat Betting Systems - Baccarat Betting Strategy

 
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